Rod Hoare's version of "EI Eradication"

"EI eradication" - from Cyberhorse - Rod Hoare NSW DPI

From Day 1 the authorities have stated that they are working towards eradication of EI. This posting is a review of how this process is working.

Many cynics declare that Europe and America have not been able to eradicate it but others point out that South Africa and India have eradicated the disease.
Why can’t we? What are our chances?

We had some initial problems:
• the initial spread of infection prior to standstill was very widespread and into densely populated areas
• no vaccine supplies were on hand, no approvals were available, vaccines would be a month coming. Sending investigation teams out was like sending a fire brigade teams on foot with wet sacks, when we needed tankers with pumps and hoses
• we did not know how the disease would spread under Australian conditions
• The disease came at the worst time of the year – just before breeding season, just before foaling, in cool weather, etc. Spread from property to property occurred in the cool morning mists up to about 3 km.

We had some advantages:
• The DPI was well trained in emergency response and did respond quickly
• There was an AUSVETPLAN for EI
• We had an excellent test (PCR test for presence of virus) and a capacity to test up to 1,000 samples overnight.
• The new generation of vaccines produces effective immunity against the strain in Australia after the first injection

So how is this working?
• The geographic area of Australia affected by equine influenza has not changed much in the past 6 weeks,
• There have been three new “spot fires” in the green zone but these have now been contained with vaccination buffers
• Now that adequate vaccine supplies are available it is possible to respond more quickly and effectively to put out the spot fire situations.
• Vaccine supplies are still limited. Sending vaccine to uninfected states is like sending water tankers away from the fire front – vaccine priority is where the disease is likely to occur.
• The daily number of new infected properties is much less than what it was mid September
• The great majority of infections are occurring in previously infected areas and within vaccination buffers.
• A small proportion of Australia's horses have been exposed to EI virus - less than 10% of the total horse population
• More horses are becoming immune to EI daily after recovering from EI infection or to the effects of vaccination
• The first round of EI vaccinations in the buffer zones in NSW is more than 70% complete
• The boundaries of some of the red and amber interfaces in NSW are to be replaced by amber and green zones respectively.
• The plan is to have all high risk horses in the NSW purple zone immune to EI due to infection or vaccination by 30 November 2007
• Scenario analysis indicates that the epizootic is running below the mid-range prediction curve, and well below the worst case curve
• The best guess prediction is that EI will be eradicated by 30 June 2008
• Eradication will depend on compliance with personal biosecurity.

The conclusion is that eradication is well on track and remains the number one priority.